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A Week in Charts
Charts of interest with brief commentary...Liabilities, Real Estate, Investing
Todd Ballenger
March 24, 2026
"Do you appreciate your non-toothache?"
LIABILITIES
What’s Happening?
We're seeing a major shift in expected rate cuts.I believe the market is going to force the hand of the Fed, and we are likely to see more rate cuts than this by year end.
The problem again is inflation and avoiding making it worse.
Many are starting to believe we will see rate hikes before the end of the year.
We are dealing with a market that is obsessed with the news.
We're also seeing some challenges to high-yield, riskier debt.
This puts stress on mortgage-backed securities.
My bigger issue is with the move index because this volatility puts an insurance premium that gets borne by the consumer when they borrow.
I'm going to do a whole write-up on this soon.
If you didn't read this piece last week, go check it out. It's worth your time. Access some free-calculators and free education: https://borrow-smart-university.web.app/
REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?
As you can see, the real estate sentiment has reversed, continuing to tread back below break-even neutral.
Real estate still sluggish.
Although housing affordability is ticking up, which is positive.
Again, sluggish.
If inventory continues to decrease, that will keep a bid (positive) for housing prices.
As you can see, housing returns have been slowing but have stayed positive.
The house cost to income is also sliding down.Good for new home buyers.
The largest buying population is about to peak, so a lot of pent-up demand for new homes.
And you can see where people are moving to and from.
“The Second Coming” by W. B. Yeats:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
ASSETS
What’s Happening?
The market doesn't like volatility. It can't price it in, so insurance goes up, and everything goes down. Except for energy, if you're creating an energy crisis.
Generally, these are good times to buy stocks. You should buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. As Warren Buffett said.
I'm sorry, but it's got to be really difficult to live on this income.I know people who are, and I know it's a real struggle.
I believe gold gets a pretty solid bid here before long.
Seniors have a lot of wealth tied up in the market, and they've been rewarded for taking that risk.
The market is starting to become a little more reasonable in terms of forward expectation and earnings.
ON BEING HUMAN
What’s Worth Sharing?
This continues to blow my mind. I know college students who spend $5 to have a $5 cup of coffee delivered.
Top spend on sports.
Generally speaking, we still have quite a happy country.
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AI
and The Future of Work…
Reality setting in.
The two non-public horses.