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Being a True Friend | Top 10 Housing Shifts - Record Markets!
Todd Ballenger
December 06, 2024
“But no matter the medicinal virtues of being a true friend or sustaining a long close relationship with another, the ultimate touchstone of friendship is not improvement, neither of the other nor of the self, the ultimate touchstone is witness, the privilege of having been seen by someone and the equal privilege of being granted the sight of the essence of another, to have walked with them and to have believed in them, and sometimes just to have accompanied them for however brief a span, on a journey impossible to accomplish alone.”
Mark Shrime, MD, PhD, writes, the seemingly “safe choice” can be misleading: “When we’re offered a choice between a risky thing (like a mystery box) and a sure thing (like a boat), we humans avoid risk only when the sure thing is good.” That boat is pretty good so I don’t care so much what is in the box…So much hinges on your personal perspective and frame of reference (and is part of the reason that making “imperfect” decisions is better than making no decisions at all). (Medium)
Postponement is simply stupid if you think about it. When you postpone you are saying ‘not now’ to the present (in the box). Tomorrow you will also have to decide, so why not today? And do you think that tomorrow you will be wiser than today? Do you think that tomorrow you will be livelier than today? Do you think that tomorrow you will be younger than today, fresher than today? Tomorrow you will be older, and your courage might be less; tomorrow you will be more experienced only if you act today..
Never postpone for the tomorrow. And who knows? Tomorrow may come or may not come. If you have to decide you have to decide right now. Do I call that advisor or realtor or client? I’m comparing what is right now ‘the idea of calling’ against something else. If that something else is do nothing, then that prize may seem bigger than that unknown prize in the box (uncertainty). Call now and find out what’s in the box.
An illustration:
Dr. Vogel, the dentist, finished his examination on a pretty young patient. "Miss Baseman," he said, "I'm afraid I'm going to have to pull out your wisdom teeth!" "Oh, my!" exclaimed the girl. "I'd rather have a baby than have my wisdom teeth taken out!" "Well," said Dr. Vogel, "could you make up your mind so that I can adjust the chair?"
Make up your mind. Don't go on postpone an action today you want to take (uncertainty) for the certainty of inaction… and don’t negotiate with yourself internally, if you aren’t sure what to do, ask someone for another perspective. They may see you as a friend or witness and offer you a different guidance than the one you might find yourself giving to yourself. That’s also being a true friend to yourself.
Another example:
I have a friend that told me about Bitcoin when you could buy a ‘coin’ for around $100, this was a long time ago, and I was very short sighted. I loved the idea and wanted to buy some, but I didn’t. She encouraged me again when it was $1,000 and I again procrastinated. I remember a conversation when it was at $14,000 in 2017 and she told me it was going to $100,000 and I laughed. She continued to buy and buy… I was trading the known for the unknown and it’s another lesson, we are all learning them.
a BORROW SMART CONCEPT
Location, Location, Location
Each of these FACTS can be address differently… but Torsten at the Apollo Group provides an interesting list:
US homes are getting smaller: The size of new homes being built has declined by 12% since 2016.
The median age of all homebuyers is now 49 years old, up from 31 in 1981.
House prices are predicted to increase by 10.8% over the coming year, according to a home price model.
40% of US homes don’t have a mortgage.
The average number of homes sold per real estate agent every year is 21, down from 54 in 2004.
Households’ equity in real estate is at a record-high 73% of housing values.
A record-high 36% of Americans say they would rent if they were going to move.
More than half of all mortgages outstanding have an interest rate below 4%.
95% of mortgages outstanding are 30-year fixed-rate.
63% of all mortgages outstanding were issued after 2018.
Each of these has implications for real estate and lending practices. I’ll leave that here for you to consider - you should be able to look at each of these and see an immediate ‘strategy’ or implication for how you adjust your sails in 2025.
LIABILITIES and DEBT
What’s Happening.
very few with lower credit scores are getting mortgage loans
update from: Len Kiefer on this lovely chart of rates
reversion to the mean at 3.25?
higher incomes maintain more debt as low cost mortgage debt where lower incomes have more credit card debt
average recurring balances by State
the next shoe to drop is accessing equity in housing
they are not making any more land, and that’s a big driver of housing appreciation
that credit card debt might be hurting 1st time buyers
we are becoming more productive and making more money
but that does put pressure on hiring
we are not the only ones with a lot of debt
fortunately Turkeys do cost less!
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."
REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?
still holding strong and in 7’s for the first time in two years…
inventory still growing
interesting…
real housing cost parabolic…
is this why these GenZ feel this way - is it all relative to housing dreams?
"Nothing so undermines your financial judgement as the sight of your neighbor getting rich."
ASSETS and INCOME
What’s Happening?
stonks on a tear… lordy every week is GREEN across the boards…
bitcoin owners are deeply ‘in the money’
and with that we get to new highs in Euphoria
it’s tough to go this hard for 3 years, time to lighten up Todd
possibly sustainable, but I’d not take those odds in vegas
France is up 10% in the last 24 years, while the Russell 2000 was up 9% last week…
the US is the place to be invested
and there’s this…
inflation rising…
and this…
social security is a key engine of money supply for our economy
Our median wealth is not so indicative of the wealth effect…
teaching is looking pretty good…
another sign of higher productivity from? AI? Technology?
this is the MONTH to stay invested - will everyone sell in January to move taxes to next year?
if you are an investor, this was the best month in the last century for stock returns
I think stock replacement with options may be worthwhile, but I think others already have this idea… so hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…
Tariff’s make inflation worse!
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
ON BEING HUMAN
What’s Worth Sharing?
I feel optimistic about your youth after watching this…
AC/DC Before
AC/DC During
AC/DC AFTER - my favorite band and the first one I saw in concert…
I’ll be seeing them in 2025 in Nashville, TN - what was your first concert?
Desiderata
Go placidly amid the noise and the haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible, without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.
Avoid loud and aggressive persons; they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter, for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.
Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.
Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals, and everywhere life is full of heroism.
Be yourself. Especially do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment, it is as perennial as the grass.
Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth.
Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.
Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.
And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be. And whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.
DOPAMEMES
And Other Happy Moments…
Artificial Intelligence
And the Future of Work…
Seven Big Reasons Humans Beat AI as a CoWorker!
We’ve Got Bodies
AI doesn’t wrestle refrigerators up stairs or chop onions in the kitchen. Physical jobs requiring strength, dexterity, or precision—like construction, maintenance, and food prep—remain uniquely human.We Fix Ourselves
Robots break; humans bounce back. We repair the machines and ourselves, adapting to tasks that robots can't yet master or maintain.We’re Social Creatures
People crave human connections. Teachers, nurses, and salespeople don’t just deliver services—they build trust, motivate, and empathize in ways robots can’t replicate.We Care What Others Think
Motivation, shame, and social influence are human superpowers. Coaches, security guards, and customer service reps shape behavior just by being there.We Pay With Our Attention
Human attention is scarce and valuable. It’s why fine dining, high-end retail, and VIP sales thrive on human interaction—it signals exclusivity and care.We’re Independent
Humans aren’t tied to a server or a programmer. We earn trust as autonomous beings, whether as lawyers, CEOs, or friends.We Build Relationships
True networks grow from personal bonds: dinners, shared jokes, and trust built over time. AI can’t replace the human touch in relationships that drive success in business and life.
Bottom Line: AI might be smart, but humans have the heart, hands, and connections that keep us essential.
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