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Death, Taxes and Retirement :-)
"The only difference between a tax man and a taxidermist is that the taxidermist leaves the skin.""
A Brief History of the US Tax System
First, we are being told there will be substantial changes in taxes and our tax system. The US tax system has gone through many changes since its inception. Here's a quick overview:
Early Days: Before the 20th century, the government primarily relied on tariffs and excise taxes.
16th Amendment (1913): This amendment allowed the federal government to levy a tax on income, paving the way for the modern income tax system.
World Wars: Wartime needs led to increased tax rates and the expansion of the tax base.
Social Security Act (1935): This established Social Security taxes, which are dedicated to funding social security and Medicare programs.
Ongoing Evolution: The tax code has been continually refined over the years, with changes in rates, deductions, and credits reflecting economic conditions and social priorities but with no major changes.
more and more people file each year
Key Features of the US Tax System:
Progressive Taxation: Higher earners pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes.
Tax Brackets: Income is divided into levels, each taxed at a different rate.
Deductions and Credits: These reduce taxable income or tax liability, often used to incentivize certain behaviors or provide relief for specific groups.
How do consumer spend their tax returns?
Essentially it is right in the name: The IRS - THEIRS :-) We’ll see if tax changes impact real estate lending in 2025!
a BORROW SMART CONCEPT
The Right Now 5 Minute Retirement Checkup
Quick hack for retirement savings target: The 25x Rule
The 25x rule helps you estimate how much you need to save for retirement.
Take your yearly expenses and multiply them by 25 to find the amount of money you need to reach financial independence. You’ll back out social security or other fixed income you know that will come to you outside your ‘retirement savings bucket.’
If you don’t know how much you will likely receive in social security, go here first!
PRO TIP! make sure you have the two factor security turned out and if you have not created an account do so now, you’ll get an annual statement of expected retirement benefits that help with future planning.
Example: Let’s say you’d like $100,000 annually and you imagine $40,000 will come from you and your spouses social security. That would leave $60,000 a year spent from your retirement savings. You’ll need $1.5M ($60,000 x 25 = $1,500,000) in savings to cover that $60,000 annual spending. This is another way of getting to the 4% withdrawal rate that is often used. If you have $1,500,000 X 4% withdrawal rate annually = $60,000. That makes it very unlikely you would outlive your savings, and you’ll have a nice cushion when you need more for medical or other expenses.
Source: Fidelity
Another hack from Fidelity… if you have 1X your salary saved by age 30, you are on track. Say at age 30 you make $70,000 a year, your goal should be to have $70,000 in total savings by then. At age 50 you are making $100,000 a year, by age 50 you should have 6 X $100,000 or $600,000 saved. This allows you to do a quick check-in with the example above so you aren’t rushing last minute buying lottery tickets.
LIABILITIES and DEBT
What’s Happening.
IYKYK
real rates are rising
fed funds rates coming down but at a slower pace than previously expected
another look at rate cut expetations
the big guys says mortgages drop to lose 6% range this year, then 5% range in 2026
consumers should be banking and ready to buy
the subprime auto loans are driving up delinquencies
"Income tax has made more liars out of the American people than golf has."
REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?
BIG SHIFT IN SENTIMENT! POSITIVE…
Wow, first time solidly over 7 this year…
we’ve had a slower year, but…
existing home sales are firming up
stabilizing confidence
and optimistic builders will offer new inventory
avoid Hawaii :-)
various looks at housing sales…
overall house prices have held up really well
"If you get up early,
work late,
and pay your taxes,
you will get ahead —
if you strike oil."
ASSETS and INCOME
What’s Happening?
should have put it all in bitcoin!
most are holding which makes this a funny money as money is only money when it transacts
some of this might just be ‘ we’re in a bull market ‘
insiders are still selling
and consumers are still buying
Buffett seems to think they’ll be some buying times ahead
big companies are making record profits
but the best time to buy is often NOW
just keep expectations reasonable
especially if you are starting a new business
you can always go work for the government
"People who complain about taxes can be divided into two classes: men and women."
ON BEING HUMAN
What’s Worth Sharing?
Miles Davis - Left Hand - Irving Penn, 1986
Right before the famous Abbey Road walk across the street…
THIS and THAT idea from @EpsilonTheory, in conversation with @ttmygh and I for @excessreturnpod, is just too good to not share to end the week:
"My attention, my energy, my heart--it's in three investments.
I am levered long to my children's education, my home/my principal… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Matt Zeigler (@CultishCreative)
9:55 PM • Nov 15, 2024
DOPAMEMES
And Other Happy Moments…
Artificial Intelligence
And the Future of Work…
Not sure which AI product for the job?
https://helpmoji.com/
Keep your kids entertained:
https://ai-mazegenerator.com/
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