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Embracing Uncertainty - Taking Shortcuts - Don't Judge

Embracing Uncertainty - Taking Shortcuts - Don't Judge

Todd Ballenger
October 18, 2024

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“I have learned much from my teachers, more from my colleagues, and most from my students”

Rabbi Chanina

Uncertainty stops most people dead in their tracks. Why? Because we are wired to crave control and predictability. When faced with the unknown, your brain starts screaming, “What if I fail? What if I look stupid?” So, you play it safe. You stick to what you know, even when deep down, you feel stuck. It’s the same cycle: people chase security—whether it’s in a career, relationships, or beliefs—and when it inevitably falls short, they get frustrated. I can use that same fear against the fear, by asking what if I don’t do this? Sometimes — that will get you going as you know the answer and don’t like that MORE than you don’t like the fear of your current uncertainty! That said - if you put your trust in something external, thinking it’ll give you the confidence to move forward, it rarely does. That’s the trap. Motivation externally is like a shower, you can’t take just one as stay clean. Ultimately the security you want is a complete trust in your own ability to respond to what your own needs. If you can’t trust you, who can you trust?

Real growth, the kind that actually moves the needle in your life, only happens when you embrace the uncertainty. Krishnamurti talks about how we keep looking for certainty in all the wrong places—jobs, money, people—and every time, we’re let down. The truth is, the only way to get past that ceiling is to lean into the unknown. When you stop needing everything to be “safe,” you free yourself to actually make bold moves. And guess what? That’s where the magic happens.

You grow when you stop running from uncertainty and start using it as fuel to become more than you imagined possible.

Here’s one of my favorite Krishnamurti talks on Uncertainty converted into an AI generated talk…via Google’s NotebookLLM.

The original talk on Uncertainty from Bombay:

I have many loves, but the two areas of my life that I’ve studied intently are the areas of money and spirit. Krishnamurti is one of the teachers that always clarified my thinking.

That said, don’t judge others, and especially don’t judge yourself.

a BORROW SMART CONCEPT
Taking Shortcuts

I would argue that there are shortcuts worth taking. In a recent CLA class we discussed how much of what I teach is based on 30+ years of struggle and learning. I can’t do that for you, you still have to work and struggle to learn anything worth learning, but a person that has walked the road before you can often help you avoid mistakes they’ve already made… (thanks mom and dad)… and that’s true of any teacher, but the student is a key part of the teaching process. The student elicits from the teacher what is needed now. If you aren’t asking good questions you aren’t fully engaged - it’s like food is good for you, but watching it sit on a plate provides very little real nutrition…

The 7 Question to Borrow Smart

These 7 questions were a ‘hack’ a way for me to have confidence to engage any client in a meaningful way. If a prospect is on the phone, these questions can lead to a deeper understanding of the client goals and objective. If a financial advisor or realtor is there this can be utilized as a way question their processes of engagement personally and with their clients.

Ask yourself these questions now, and apply them to anything that is important to you. Trying to get in shape?

How do you manage the risk that you don’t do the work necessary?
What kind of payment in time, money, learning will you make?
What resources are available to you now?
How much will you invest?
How will you manage your progress?
How will you protect your confidence and the gains you make?
Ultimately how will you stay on course?

Take short cuts by using existing processes that worked for others, but make them your own. Learn something new every day and APPLY it and your short cuts will get you where you want to go far faster. Only you can walk your path in your unique way - I don’t want anyone to be ‘like me’ I want them to be better versions of who they already are!

LIABILITIES and DEBT
What’s Happening.

for those looking for high level of where rates are each week

little pop and drop on activity

target for refinancing still growing

but rate cuts dropped from 9 back to 5 expected during this cycle

because the inflation boogey man is out there …

real estate still the biggest driver of wealth creation

the leverage helps!

earners are making more in real dollars, but not fast enough to keep up with house appreciation

it does also show weakness trending up

this is the other side of inflation, job growth and stability

everyone from the bottom 50% are wealthier post COVID

this comes from real estate growth, investments and real INCOME

right now higher income is supporting higher debt

"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is,
and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security."

- John Allen Paulos

REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?

we dropped this week due to articles about rates and affordability

almost a double in 8 years, remember the law of 72?

you can see price hasn’t softened

but more inventory coming online

is still leading to price reductions

housing starts- that 2007 period is still fascinating

I’m not a great writer, but I hack at it as time allows. I follow a lot of money writers to see what they are exploring and this quote: “Looking for a place to live forces you to locate yourself somewhere on this socioeconomic spectrum.” written by Katie pulled me into a lovely article that’s worth a read as she voices it so well.

House of Mirrors — Millennial Money with Katie

The homes we’re supposed to find desirable are not places to live, but places to affirm our proficiency at navigating the marketplace of modern life.

moneywithkatie.com/blog/house-of-mirrors

“The only constant in life is change."

- Heraclitus

ASSETS and INCOME
What’s Happening?

utilities got over heated as an AI play

a look at the average value of a stock portfolio at all time highs

you can see net worth percentiles growing too!

overall stock prices are going up with REVENUE growth

little frothy in the US

income growing across all groups

but we know how to spend money

and eggs are getting cheaper

and I mean even the bottom 50% is making bank

everyone is looking good (jinx)

AND the FED just started lowering rates

only 4 times in the last 74 years were stock returns between 8 and 10%

great chart of those distributions here

and how different years can play out

just do this and you’ll be fine

"When you come to the edge of all the light you know, and are about to step off into the darkness of the unknown, faith is knowing one of two things will happen: There will be something solid to stand on, or you will be taught how to fly."

- Patrick Overton

ON BEING HUMAN
What’s Worth Sharing?

“Dost thou love life? Then do not squander Time;

for that’s the Stuff Life is made of.”

- Benjamin Franklin

seems like we can all agree on one thing!

as a society we are moving from the gold watch to project and short careers

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

Robert Frost - the most famous poem about uncertainty (IMHO)