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- If You Are Reading This - You Might Be a Survivor
If You Are Reading This - You Might Be a Survivor
Would you like to be a thrivor?
Todd Ballenger
February 14, 2025
When you come out of the storm, you won’t be the same person who walked into it.
That’s what the storm was all about."
Background and Meaning:
During World War II, military analysts studied returning aircraft to determine where they were hit by enemy fire. The red dots on the image represent the bullet holes found in planes that made it back to base. The military developed a plan to reinforce those areas with the most damage to help planes make it back safely. What were they missing?
A brilliant statistician, Abraham Wald, pointed out a crucial insight: the planes they analyzed had survived. The planes that did not return likely had damage in other areas, such as the engine or cockpit, which were critical for the plane and crew’s survival.
NET: the fortifications needed to be in the areas that were not showing red dots!
a BORROW SMART CONCEPT
The Survivorship Bias in Mortgage Lending: Ignoring Financial Advisors Is Costing You Business
As a mortgage loan officer, you likely spend a significant portion of your time calling on real estate agents—and for good reason. They are directly involved in transactions, work with buyers daily, and can send referrals your way. But what if I told you that by focusing exclusively only on realtors, you are making the same mistake as World War II analysts who reinforced the wrong parts of their airplanes?
This is the essence of survivorship bias, a mental trap that blinds mortgage professionals to hidden opportunities. Just like wartime analysts only studied the planes that survived, many loan officers only look at the referrals they already receive, completely ignoring the "missing data"—financial advisors could have sent you high-quality client leads during this entire time. Be careful, if you survived this last cycle downturn, you have grit, but don’t miss the data you don’t see.
The Mistake: Calling on Realtors but Ignoring Financial Advisors
Realtors are a visible and common source of mortgage referrals. You get deals from them, so you naturally assume that spending all your time cultivating realtor relationships is the best use of your energy. But here’s the hidden risk:
You compete with every other loan officer for the same group of realtors.
Realtors' referrals are often short-term, transactional, and dependent on the housing market.
They refer to many homebuyers who are unprepared financially and may struggle with down payments, credit, or debt-to-income ratios.
Meanwhile, financial advisors are an untapped source of mortgage referrals, but they don’t appear in your data because you’re not actively calling on them. This is where the missing planes are. And you probably don’t realize that their referrals are purchase and refinance opportunities. When was the last time a Realtor sent you a refinance?
Financial Advisors: The ‘Missing Planes’ in Your Business Strategy
If you’re only getting referrals from realtors, you’re missing the buyers who never even make it to a realtor because their financial professional already advised them to pay cash. Financial advisors help clients make life decisions—buying homes, investing, and planning for the future- but they also make mistakes. By forming relationships with financial advisors, you tap into:
1. High-Quality, Pre-Qualified Borrowers
Financial advisors don’t just work with anyone. They cultivate relationships with financially responsible individuals with savings, strong credit, and a mindset for long-term planning. These clients are far less likely to have last-minute financing issues than leads from realtors.
2. Steady Pipeline of Business (Not Market-Dependent)
Real estate agents thrive when the market is hot, but what happens during slow periods? If rates rise or inventory shrinks, realtors see fewer transactions. Financial advisors, however, work with clients year-round, regardless of market cycles. They have a steady flow of homebuyers considering major financial moves.
3. Trusted Influence on Buyers
Unlike realtors, who clients may only know for a short period, financial advisors have long-term relationships with their clients. When an advisor recommends you as their mortgage professional, the level of trust is much higher. The client isn’t just looking for a quick deal but the best long-term financing strategy.
4. Bigger Loan Amounts & Repeat Business
Financial advisors typically work with higher-net-worth individuals. These clients are more likely to buy higher-value homes, refinance strategically, or invest in real estate over time. Instead of chasing low-margin deals, you can build a business book with higher loan amounts and more repeat transactions.
How to Avoid the Survivorship Bias in Your Business
It’s time to look beyond the referrals you’re already getting and start focusing on who’s missing from the equation. Here’s how you can shift your strategy:
1. Identify Local Financial Advisors in Your Market
Search for CFPs, RIAs, wealth managers, and independent financial advisors in your area. Look at who’s advising high-income professionals and homeowners.
2. Position Yourself as a Liability Advisor, Not a Loan Officer
Financial advisors care about their clients’ long-term financial health. Instead of leading with "I can get your clients a loan," shift to:
“I specialize in helping current and future homeowners who are serious about their money minimize their cost of borrowing over their lives through effective liability management.” In the same way, you help them create wealth through effective asset management.
This aligns with their role and makes you more valuable to their practice.
3. Offer Value: Liability Planning Insights
Provide financial advisors with insights they can share with clients, such as:
How much interest are they paying unknowingly and unnecessarily?
How their current debt-free dates for their liabilities align with other financial goals.
How to use home equity as a strategic financial planning tool.
When you educate financial advisors, you make them look good to their clients—and they’ll send business your way.
4. Track Your New Referral Sources
Stop measuring success based only on realtor referrals. Create a system to track mortgage referrals from financial advisors and monitor how they compare in quality and volume. Over time, you’ll likely find that advisor referrals are more straightforward to close, involve less price shopping, and result in higher loan volume that is more predictable over time.
Conclusion: Start Looking for the ‘Missing Planes’
The best mortgage professionals don’t just work harder—they work smarter. If you only focus on the referrals you’re already getting, you’re reinforcing the "bullet holes" while ignoring the critical areas where you lose business.
By expanding your focus beyond realtors and building relationships with financial advisors, you’ll gain access to high-quality, pre-qualified borrowers who trust your expertise and aren’t just looking for the lowest rate.
The question is: Are you only looking at the planes that made it back, or are you ready to find the hidden opportunities in your business?
Here’s a recent ‘AI’ conversation based on a conversation I had with a new CLA:
Want to build a plan for your branch/company?
email: [email protected]
LIABILITIES
What’s Happening?
the lending game has survived it all - we are just a blip in the big game
the shorter term perspective is unique, but tends to revert to the mean
people are borrowing more out of necessity than opportunity
very short term this will help as rates trend down
many opportunities for reverse forthcoming
likely to help with this problem as they age further
no one levers harder than commercial banks
and YOLO investors
key is inflation
needs to keep coming down
and stay out of the crosshairs of the FED
"Difficulties in life are intended to make us better, not bitter."
REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?
improvement from the prior week - YAY!
home buyers are starting later in the process
because housing is expensive and inventory has been tight (reflexive problem)
yet prices are still going up overall!
more inventory can lead to lower prices
all real estate is local
and did I mention all real estate is local - some areas are seeing prices come down
"Do not pray for an easy life; pray for the strength to endure a difficult one."
ASSETS
What’s Happening?
volatility is back!
the big question is where are we in this cycle?
the Mag 7 have ruled, can we get a broadening?
this year tends to be a sloppy year, I’m super conservative right now!
we are seeing earnings reports not drive prices higher
we are already at high valuations
and passive flow from workers keeps pushing more liquidity into the market to drive them higher
the dollar, interest rates, oil all key tells
unless you can afford to lose $54B like Elon did last week alone
there is always Bitcoin to save us…
if we don’t get hit by a fire, or hurricane, or (fill in the blank)
ON BEING HUMAN
What’s Worth Sharing?
It’s all relative.
Brickman, Coates, and Janoff-Bulman (1978) study compared the happiness levels of lottery winners, paraplegics, and a control group. The study found that, over time, paraplegics and lottery winners had similar levels of overall happiness, challenging assumptions about what brings lasting well-being.
That said: “Nothing in this world is permanent, and we’re foolish when we ask anything to last, but surely we’re still more foolish not to take delight in it while we have it.” as old W. Somerset Maugham reminds us.
DOPAMEMES
And Other Happy Moments…
Oh that we could live each day as an entire life and see it anew.
this won’t end well…
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AI
and The Future of Work…
As Alex Hormozi said: “You don’t need more ideas. You need to start executing the ideas you already have.” The best agents for you will emerge from a simple and methodical approach: define tasks, build or select the right tools, integrate your choice of (Anthropic, ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.), test, and refine.
When you do this properly, you won’t just be saving time—you’ll be revolutionizing your work. Execute big, fail fast, iterate quickly, and you’ll have a suite of almost free workers working for you 24/7.
Conversely, Salesforce announced it would stop hiring new workers.I recently talked to a class of students and encouraged them to make peace with AI.
Want to start a new website for a project: https://search.app/PSz7MNayq8aHk1Yq5
If you want peace, stop fighting. If you want peace of mind, stop fighting with your thoughts.
