Plugging Out to Plug In

and the Big Beautiful Bill - plus it's Graduation Season and so much more...

Author

Todd Ballenger
May 23, 2025

❝

"Life is short. Break the rules. Forgive quickly, kiss slowly. Love truly. Laugh uncontrollably and never regret anything that makes you smile."

Steven Tyler - ‘Does the Noise in my Head Bother You?

Saw this today…

A power strip.
Plugged into... itself.

You laugh. I laugh.
But — this is precisely how many people live their lives.

You’re out here reading the same books, having the same conversations, doing the same things — and expecting “new ideas” to emerge like divine downloads from the heavens suddenly.

Let me break it to you: If you’re only plugged into what you already know, you’re not powering anything. You’re just... looping.

That’s you, if:

  • You’re consuming (and believing) your own recycled thoughts.

  • You’re giving the same advice now you did 3 years ago.

  • You’re bored with your ‘why’ and/or your ‘how’.

Real growth happens when you plug into something outside your current circuit.

So Ask Yourself:

  • Who are you learning from that disagrees with you?

  • What problem are you solving that scares the hell out of you?

  • What new room are you walking into where you’re the dumbest person?

“If your environment doesn’t challenge your assumptions, you’re not in a growth loop — you’re in a delusion loop.”

Me

The Fix?

  1. Plug out.
    Unplug from comfort, confirmation bias, and your own ego.

  2. Plug in.
    New people. New industries. New pain. That’s where the voltage is.

  3. Get shocked.
    That uncomfortable jolt? That’s your brain wiring new circuits. That’s growth.

a BORROW SMART CONCEPT
The Big Beautiful Bill

KICKING THE CAN ONCE AGAIN - NOTHING STOPS THIS TRAIN

  • 2025–2029: Larger deficits due to front-loaded tax cuts — notably:

    • Enhanced TCJA provisions (Trump-era tax cuts extended)

    • SALT cap relief (state and local tax deduction restored/expanded)

    • Other campaign tax cuts (tips, auto, overtime, etc.)

  • 2030–2034: Smaller deficits via spending cuts, especially:

    • Cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, spectrum auction revenue

    • Reduced green subsidies

    • Defense & border spend increases taper off

Musings of Potential Impact to Realtors, Advisors and Lenders:

Timeline

Key Opportunity

Key Risk

Strategic Move

2025–2029

Expansion cycle, lower taxes, investor-friendly

Overheating asset prices

Lock in long-term debt at fixed rates, acquire in high-tax states

2030–2034

Budget tightening, rate pressure, and reduced federal support

Rising cap rates, affordability squeeze

Rebalance portfolios, consider mid-market rentals, and recession-resistant sectors.

The bond market is not happy so far. They are saying that we are spending too much that we may not be able to afford, so rates are trending higher in disapproval.

what a year!

LIABILITIES
What’s Happening?

loans are coming from less traditional sources

THE US now has a 690 credit score :-)

higher rates and lower rates have different impacts

our ability to service our debt is off the charts!

Reverse Mortgage opportunities will increase

see above!

but rates are still a drag…

“Caption This!”
Photo: Mark Dumbleton -

I was slightly surprised, but this is my #1 Podcast so far…

6' - Spiritual Wealth: Living a Mindful Life by Alchemy of Self | 1' - 10' Deep Dives

Beyond Wealth, an anthology of essays, explores the meaning of a rich life beyond material wealth. The book integrates wisdom from various sources, including philosophical and religious texts and figures, to discuss topics such as financial well-being, mindful living, the importance of relationships, and the pursuit of a fulfilling life. The author shares personal anecdotes and insights, drawing parallels between financial success and spiritual growth. The essays also cover diverse themes, ranging from the nature of work and the impact of technology to the value of art, music, and travel, encouraging self-reflection and a conscious approach to life. Finally, the book touches on mortality, legacy, and the importance of cherishing relationships.

spotifycreators-web.app.link/e/LksfxTufATb

REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?

slight improvement over the last few weeks for sentiment

we need people to need houses

but even the current housing growth isn’t being supported with builders

inflation expectations for housing are 1% appreciation growth

but people are still waiting longer to buy

sales are up - @mikesimonsen

inventory is up

home prices are flat

price cuts are up

sellers selling is up!

build to rent is growing faster…

prices again are flattening, low demand due to high rates

ASSETS
What’s Happening?

another big green week

SPMO - great ETF if you like momentum stocks

history says the worst is over, we’ll see!

people are super long leveraged investments

but it’s been paying off, as this is the ultimate levered tech play

recession odds going down

earnings trending back up

biggest volatility continues!

top earners earn from Other Income (aka Investments)

ON BEING HUMAN
What’s Worth Sharing?

DOPAMEMES
And Other Happy Moments…

1.1M views · 33K reactions | Khatia and Gvantsa Buniatishvili on Piazzolla’s Improvisations on Libertango! | 🎹🍃 Framed by the tranquil beauty of a forest near Berlin, Khatia Buniatishvili gives a recital of pianistic masterpieces dappled by the shade of verdant... | By medici.tv | Facebook

🎹🍃 Framed by the tranquil beauty of a forest near Berlin, Khatia Buniatishvili gives a recital of pianistic masterpieces dappled by the shade of verdant...

www.facebook.com/reel/1329859655016171

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