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The 4th Turning and the Hero's Journey
Also, Debt Snowball -vs- Debt Avalanche - which is best IMO?
Todd Ballenger
May 16, 2025
“The cave you fear to enter
holds the treasure you seek.”
I’m fascinated with cycle, you know that if you’ve read my stuff for a while now. Two major cycles ‘The Hero’s Journey’ as established by Joseph Campbell and the Four Turnings as established by Howe and Struff. I was contemplating the four seasons and similar cycles within cycles and connected the dots, the Four Turnings match up with the Four Stages of the Hero’s Journey. Here’s how ChatGPT put words to my dots:
Fourth Turning Stages | Hero’s Journey Stages | Conceptual Alignment & Insights |
|---|---|---|
1- High (Stability & Unity) | 1 - Return (Integration & Community Renewal) | Both represent the resolution after crisis. Society, like the hero, has returned from crisis changed, rejuvenated, bringing insights and stability back into the collective consciousness. Society experiences peace, just as the hero returns transformed. |
2- Awakening (Cultural & Spiritual Exploration) | 2 - Departure (Call to Adventure & Threshold Crossing) | Both involve leaving behind established norms. The Awakening challenges social order, just as the hero leaves the ordinary world. Society begins to question institutional narratives, paralleling the hero’s departure into the unknown. |
3 - Unraveling (Fragmentation & Individualism) | 3 - Initiation (Trials & Inner Growth) | The Unraveling mirrors the hero’s initiation, a period marked by trials, challenges, and increasing complexity. Society fragments and struggles internally, akin to the hero’s facing internal doubts and external foes. |
4 - Crisis (Existential Challenge & Collective Struggle) | 4 - Ordeal & Transformation (Symbolic Death & Rebirth) | The Crisis aligns closely with the hero’s ordeal. Society faces existential threats—war, economic collapse, pandemics—forcing collective transformation. This mirrors the hero’s symbolic death, rebirth, and crucial transformation. |
We all essentially get to live through a full TURNING, all four. Is that by design? We are in the 4th Turning now, so for those of us alive today, we’ll likely be a part of the reset and move back to the 1st Turning - a new cycle in our Hero’s Journey.
You are the hero of your own journey, so enjoy the day, it’s not about the content, it is about your process of walking, your own becoming through the journey! As Joseph Campbell says, ‘no one can play your part like you can’, and ‘heck everyone else is already taken’, my paraphrase! Read more here if interested.
a BORROW SMART CONCEPT
Debt Snowballing
Which is the best? When tackling debt, two popular strategies often come up: the Debt Snowball and the Debt Avalanche. Understanding the pros and cons of each can help you choose the method that's right for you. I use these frequently with friends and family members to help them get a handle on repaying debt quickly and consistently. You’d payoff a $1,000 loan at 5% before a $10,000 loan at 8% to reduce your loans and simplify to then focus on the big stuff!
Debt Snowball Method
How It Works: You pay off debts starting with the smallest balance first, moving upwards to larger debts.
Pros:
Psychological Motivation: Quick wins by paying off smaller debts can build momentum and confidence.
Simpler to Follow: Easy to organize and visualize your progress.
Immediate Gratification: Provides a clear sense of achievement early on.
Cons:
Potentially More Costly: Since you're not prioritizing interest rates, you may pay more in total interest.
Slower Overall Debt Elimination: Larger debts with high-interest rates may linger, costing you more money in the long run.
Debt Avalanche Method
How It Works: You prioritize debts by paying off the highest-interest rate debts first, then moving downwards to lower rates. You’d pay off a $10,000 at 8% first before you pay off a $1,000 loan at 5%.
Pros:
Cost-Effective: Reduces total interest payments significantly.
Faster Debt Clearance: High-interest debts are eliminated sooner, potentially shortening your overall debt timeline.
Cons:
Less Immediate Satisfaction: Paying off larger, high-interest debts first may take time, potentially diminishing motivation.
Complexity: Might require more disciplined budgeting and financial management to maintain consistency.
Which One Should You Choose?
If you thrive on motivation from quick results and simplicity, the Debt Snowball could be ideal. It’s my favorite because getting rid of the clutter (just as we teach in our Fraction Course) is key to momentum and follow through. Conversely, if minimizing interest payments and clearing debt faster is your top priority, the Debt Avalanche might be the smarter financial choice.
Ultimately, the best method is the one you'll consistently follow, turning your commitment into tangible progress. And yes, we reference over 10 different debt acceleration strategies in our CLA Course. These are high interest conversations for clients and financial advisors.
LIABILITIES
What’s Happening?
rates haven’t moved now for over 3 years, small range - break higher or lower?
rates are the biggest impact for most buyers when qualifying via income
inflation is key to watch as it holds the future of rates - lower inflation = potential lower rates
rate cuts keep shifting to later in the year
these higher rates force sellers to lower prices
spreads are key as lower spreads help lower rates, but with HIGH YIELDS they are coming down telling us that investors are not expecting massive defaults - remember rates are an auctioning mechanism for money, higher rates attract money for investors, but deter borrowers
What’s your call today?
REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?
housing index is struggling - still, we are waiting for sentiment and momentum SHIFT
inventory still climbing
younger buyers impacted by location!
I bought a property in 2017 to Airbnb it.
Purchase price: $315,000
Down payment: ~$63,000
Goal: Passive income, baby!Today, I sold it for $377,750. 🥳
BUT let's compare that to the return if I put that $$$ into the S&P 500.
For the first 6 years, I made about a 4%
— Noah Kagan (@noahkagan)
3:16 PM • May 6, 2025
listing growing quickly in the South… why?
Rocks on the lake Baikal get heated from the sunlight every now and then and melt the ice beneath. After the sun is gone, the ice turns solid again thus creating a small stand for the rock above. It is called the Baikal Dzen.
ASSETS
What’s Happening?
just for perspective
maybe that’s where we were hoping to be, still a big tax on all spending for consumers
H/T - Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
Big Gap In Sentiment, biggest ever! Who is right?
Manias, Panics and Crashes, still a great book to read!
current action points at higher future markets
wages by hour, DC wins the race!
China goods are rising fast!
per Seth Golden, all the bad years don’t end in ‘5’, aka 2025
ON BEING HUMAN
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