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- The Borrow Smart Chronicles - Keep It Simple
"Worrying is like paying a debt you don’t owe."
Weekly Spotlight: Making Simple
Simple means lots of things to different people, but I love this internet meme that has been circulating for years. Essentially, 1 standard deviation encompasses about 68% of the probability of an outcome; this is an area in this image where much energy is spent worrying and being overwhelmed as we overcomplicate things because we feel we have no power, choice, or skills to engage in a particular situation.
…at 2 standard deviations, we encompass 96% of the probability of how we deal with complexity by drifting toward two very different versions of simple. There is ‘simple’ as in not willing to learn, grow, or develop and instead spending time wanting things to be simple, and there is the other side where simple is a byproduct of real work and effort, the ‘Jedi simple’ that allows one to see through the complexity and engage the world without fear and anxiety.
That kind of simplicity isn’t easy; it takes time, but anything you’ve worked hard at for long periods allows a simple mastery, a life experienced with fewer complications. You’ll pay a price for either simple.
This is embodied in an old quote by Jerzy Gregorek:
a BORROW SMART CONCEPT
Everything Cycles
I’ve written and spoken regularly about cycles, they are a constant change we experience daily. Today I’m providing a simple visceral example (video) of the nature of this year. We’ve seen so many cycles in action—up and down, rates and markets, inflation, politics, and wars—coming and going at an unprecedented pace. The old saying ‘this too shall pass’ is another way of saying nothing remains the same; everything is in constant change.
The only constant is change. Your goal is to stay in the game, learn from each moment that is presented, and live to stand victorious in your own way based on your current skills and abilities. Learn one new thing each day, and you’ll be unstoppable in time.
LIABILITIES
What’s Happening?
housing is more expensive, but as rates come down the break-even also drops
rates are back to historical norms
However, due to the recency bias of consumer behavior, they are feeling betterer
and they could get better still in 2024 with a possible 5% handle by year end?
lower rates will help the nonperforming debt that is growing
REAL ESTATE
What’s Happening?
it is easy to see here how much a house price has gone up
and with all that demand there is more inventory coming
housing starts give us future inventory and you don’t build if you don’t expect to sell
the challenge is who can afford them
and will inventory get it right over time to alleviate the supply/demand issues?
consumer are flush with cash which will help with new purchases if they can handle the higher payments
house prices are once again on the rise
ASSETS
What’s Happening?
money market rates are likely to stay higher for LONGER
great visual of types of assets to understand
another example of cycles, and the majority are up for many reasons (inflation, money supply, increased wages flowing into retirements as more people work)
because of the above, recessions are fewer and farther apart, but more violent when they do happen
more and more investors are in the market
ON BEING HUMAN
What’s Worth Sharing?
If you grew up with horses you will act like a horse. Most of our daily actions and reactions are programmed based on behaviors we’ve had modeled over time. As Jim Rohn used to say - ‘we are the sum total of the people we’ve spent our lives with, and what we’ve read (learned)’. Reading is simply another form of modeling.’
DOPAMEMES
And Other Inspirations…
Great legacy post on what it looks like in time to be a human: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/12/the-tail-end.html?matterOnboarding=1
AIdeas
Future Hacks…
A favorite AI tool for color palettes and design: https://coolors.co/
I built my first public GPT I’ve trained on Alan Watts books, articles and public speeches:
https://chat.openai.com/g/g-15WyGHRwY-the-alan-watts-insight-engine
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